EDDRA 17 - Faulty Logic in Report on Choice and Integration

Howard L. Fuller and George A. Mitchell have examined the racial makeup of schools participating in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP). They claim that adding religious schools has increased integration in not only the religious schools, but all private schools. This claim is reflected in the title of the paper and in the summary: "Adding religious schools has meant more integration in choice schools than in Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS)." ¹

While the title restricts the perspective to private schools, a press release accompanying the report more generally claims: "Racial integration has increased since a 1998 Wisconsin Supreme Court decision adding religious schools to the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP)." ² The data that purportedly support this claim show that "half of Milwaukee Public School students attended racially isolated schools in 1999-00 . compared to 30.1% of students at religious choice schools." ³

When one says that "racial integration has increased," one is referring to the state of affairs today compared with some state of affairs at some point in the past. The report presents no such data. The fact that half of MPS students attended racially isolated schools in 1999-00, compared with 30% of students in religious schools, is not relevant to the contention, because these data represent only a snapshot from a single year. Moreover, these data are comparative, providing an index of racial isolation in the two types of schools, but not providing any information about change over time.

Fuller and Mitchell only compare racial isolation in MPS with isolation in MPCP schools for a single year. To support the claim that "racial integration has increased," they would need to show that 1) MPS schools are more integrated than they used to be, or 2) MPCP secular schools are more integrated than they used to be, or 3) MPCP religious schools are more integrated than they used to be. They would also have to show that, if any gains had occurred in one of the three types of schools, they had not been offset by losses elsewhere. They present no trend data bearing on any of these three types of institutions.

The only data providing information from past years is made in passing, when the report observes: "Minority-white enrollment at all private schools in Milwaukee changed from 27%-73% in 1994-95 to 36%-64% in 1998-99." ⁴ They claim that "these findings strongly suggested that adding religious schools had increased integration." The logic here is spurious, and the faulty logic is exacerbated by missing data. We need to know the various percentages in 1995-96, 1996-97 and 1997-98. These data could reveal a trend of increasing minority enrollment in private schools before religious schools were added.

It is possible that some of the choice schools, especially the religious schools, are becoming more ethnically diverse. Yet, rather than provide information on whether this is or is not the case, Fuller and Mitchell focus only on the relationship between the percentage of children in racially isolated schools in MPS vs. in MPCP schools. It is also possible that as minority students move into the private schools, white families will leave for the suburbs, in which case the program would ultimately increase segregation. The report presents no data on this important issue. Once more, the relevant data would require an examination of trends over time, not a single year's snapshot.

As Fuller and Mitchell themselves note, "Continuing a pattern that preceded the MPCP, non-religious Milwaukee private schools are less integrated than MPS schools." ⁵ Clearly, then, the choice program in general is not integrating these schools. Indeed, the MPCP appears to have resulted in these schools becoming more racially isolated. As shown in Appendix 1, "Enrollment at Non-Religious MPCP Schools, 1999-00," only 98 of 2,793, or 3.5%, of MPCP students in these private non-religious schools are white. Sixty-eight of these 98 white students are found in only two of the 30 schools for which data are provided. ⁶

The effect of MPCP on the non-religious private schools has been twofold: 1) to permit the establishment of a few new schools that are entirely minority (such as the Medgar Evers Academy and the Milwaukee Multicultural Academy), and 2) to increase the enrollments and racial isolation of existing schools. As with other data in the report, this is only one year's data, but Appendix 1 reveals that roughly one in six non-choice students is white, while only one in 28 choice students is white. This permits the inference that the schools would be more integrated if the choice program did not exist.

Again, Fuller and Mitchell make statements implying past vs. present comparisons but providing only one year of data. Thus, they state that "Religious schools enrolled most (62%) of the low-income choice students, leading to more integration in MPCP schools than in MPS." ⁷ Given that the data address only one year, however, Fuller and Mitchell cannot validly claim that the fact that religious schools enroll most of the choice students "led to" more integration in MPCP than in MPS. In the absence of data from the past one cannot know if the levels of integration are more, less or the same.

Perhaps the most important shortcoming of the report concerns the definition of "integration." Fuller and Mitchell provide a definition of "racial isolation," but never specify what constitutes "integration" or "more integration." An examination of Appendix 2, "Enrollment at Religious MPCP Schools, 1999-00," indicates that these schools enrolled 3,656 minority students. Of the 56 schools listed, 22 have minority non-choice enrollments that exceed 50%.⁸ Some are the "racially isolated" schools of the report, but others simply have a majority of minority students. These 22 schools account for 74.4% of all minority MPCP enrollments, or 2,722 students. One must wonder whether sending three-fourths of minority choice students to schools where minorities are already in the majority constitutes "increasing integration."

Fuller and Mitchell contend that "What is clear, so far, is that voucher critics who claimed choice here would increase segregation were wrong."⁹ Given the data presented in the previous paragraph, one can certainly question their conclusion.

In sum, a report that aims to show that the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program has increased integration fails completely to prove its case. Its principal statistics, the percentage of students in racially isolation in MPS and in private schools for a single year, are irrelevant to the contention. The overwhelming majority of minority students are attending school where the non-choice population is already mostly made up of minority students. This indicates that the Fuller-Mitchell contention might simply be wrong.

Fuller and Mitchell ask the wrong questions as they attempt to establish the choice program's impact on school integration and racial isolation. In doing so, they obscure a continuing reason for concern: the impact of the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program on racial isolation in Milwaukee's schools.

Gerald W. Bracey is an independent researcher and writer in Alexandria, Virginia. He is author of the annual Bracey Report on the Condition of Public Education (Phi Delta Kappan, October), and of Bail Me Out! Handling Difficult Data and Tough Questions About Public Schools (Corwin Press, April, 2000).
ENDNOTES

Fuller, Howard L., and George A. Mitchell, "The Impact of School Choice on Integration in Milwaukee Private Schools," published June 2000, page 1
Press Release accompanying Fuller and Mitchell, June 2000
Fuller and Mitchell, page 1
Ibid., page 3
Ibid., page 4
Ibid., Appendix 1
Ibid., page 3
Ibid., Appendix 2
Ibid., page 11

Posted 6/26/2000

Education Disinformation Detection and Reporting Agency -- a Gerald Bracey Report on the Condition of Education
Index of EDDRA Articles	A Review of "The Impact of School Choice on Integration in Milwaukee Private Schools" By Howard L. Fuller, Ph.D. and George A. Mitchell Howard L. Fuller and George A. Mitchell have examined the racial makeup of schools participating in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP). They claim that adding religious schools has increased integration in not only the religious schools, but all private schools. This claim is reflected in the title of the paper and in the summary: "Adding religious schools has meant more integration in choice schools than in Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS)." ¹ While the title restricts the perspective to private schools, a press release accompanying the report more generally claims: "Racial integration has increased since a 1998 Wisconsin Supreme Court decision adding religious schools to the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP)." ² The data that purportedly support this claim show that "half of Milwaukee Public School students attended racially isolated schools in 1999-00 . compared to 30.1% of students at religious choice schools." ³ When one says that "racial integration has increased," one is referring to the state of affairs today compared with some state of affairs at some point in the past. The report presents no such data. The fact that half of MPS students attended racially isolated schools in 1999-00, compared with 30% of students in religious schools, is not relevant to the contention, because these data represent only a snapshot from a single year. Moreover, these data are comparative, providing an index of racial isolation in the two types of schools, but not providing any information about change over time. Fuller and Mitchell only compare racial isolation in MPS with isolation in MPCP schools for a single year. To support the claim that "racial integration has increased," they would need to show that 1) MPS schools are more integrated than they used to be, or 2) MPCP secular schools are more integrated than they used to be, or 3) MPCP religious schools are more integrated than they used to be. They would also have to show that, if any gains had occurred in one of the three types of schools, they had not been offset by losses elsewhere. They present no trend data bearing on any of these three types of institutions. The only data providing information from past years is made in passing, when the report observes: "Minority-white enrollment at all private schools in Milwaukee changed from 27%-73% in 1994-95 to 36%-64% in 1998-99." ⁴ They claim that "these findings strongly suggested that adding religious schools had increased integration." The logic here is spurious, and the faulty logic is exacerbated by missing data. We need to know the various percentages in 1995-96, 1996-97 and 1997-98. These data could reveal a trend of increasing minority enrollment in private schools before religious schools were added. It is possible that some of the choice schools, especially the religious schools, are becoming more ethnically diverse. Yet, rather than provide information on whether this is or is not the case, Fuller and Mitchell focus only on the relationship between the percentage of children in racially isolated schools in MPS vs. in MPCP schools. It is also possible that as minority students move into the private schools, white families will leave for the suburbs, in which case the program would ultimately increase segregation. The report presents no data on this important issue. Once more, the relevant data would require an examination of trends over time, not a single year's snapshot. As Fuller and Mitchell themselves note, "Continuing a pattern that preceded the MPCP, non-religious Milwaukee private schools are less integrated than MPS schools." ⁵ Clearly, then, the choice program in general is not integrating these schools. Indeed, the MPCP appears to have resulted in these schools becoming more racially isolated. As shown in Appendix 1, "Enrollment at Non-Religious MPCP Schools, 1999-00," only 98 of 2,793, or 3.5%, of MPCP students in these private non-religious schools are white. Sixty-eight of these 98 white students are found in only two of the 30 schools for which data are provided. ⁶ The effect of MPCP on the non-religious private schools has been twofold: 1) to permit the establishment of a few new schools that are entirely minority (such as the Medgar Evers Academy and the Milwaukee Multicultural Academy), and 2) to increase the enrollments and racial isolation of existing schools. As with other data in the report, this is only one year's data, but Appendix 1 reveals that roughly one in six non-choice students is white, while only one in 28 choice students is white. This permits the inference that the schools would be more integrated if the choice program did not exist. Again, Fuller and Mitchell make statements implying past vs. present comparisons but providing only one year of data. Thus, they state that "Religious schools enrolled most (62%) of the low-income choice students, leading to more integration in MPCP schools than in MPS." ⁷ Given that the data address only one year, however, Fuller and Mitchell cannot validly claim that the fact that religious schools enroll most of the choice students "led to" more integration in MPCP than in MPS. In the absence of data from the past one cannot know if the levels of integration are more, less or the same. Perhaps the most important shortcoming of the report concerns the definition of "integration." Fuller and Mitchell provide a definition of "racial isolation," but never specify what constitutes "integration" or "more integration." An examination of Appendix 2, "Enrollment at Religious MPCP Schools, 1999-00," indicates that these schools enrolled 3,656 minority students. Of the 56 schools listed, 22 have minority non-choice enrollments that exceed 50%.⁸ Some are the "racially isolated" schools of the report, but others simply have a majority of minority students. These 22 schools account for 74.4% of all minority MPCP enrollments, or 2,722 students. One must wonder whether sending three-fourths of minority choice students to schools where minorities are already in the majority constitutes "increasing integration." Fuller and Mitchell contend that "What is clear, so far, is that voucher critics who claimed choice here would increase segregation were wrong."⁹ Given the data presented in the previous paragraph, one can certainly question their conclusion. In sum, a report that aims to show that the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program has increased integration fails completely to prove its case. Its principal statistics, the percentage of students in racially isolation in MPS and in private schools for a single year, are irrelevant to the contention. The overwhelming majority of minority students are attending school where the non-choice population is already mostly made up of minority students. This indicates that the Fuller-Mitchell contention might simply be wrong. Fuller and Mitchell ask the wrong questions as they attempt to establish the choice program's impact on school integration and racial isolation. In doing so, they obscure a continuing reason for concern: the impact of the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program on racial isolation in Milwaukee's schools. Gerald W. Bracey is an independent researcher and writer in Alexandria, Virginia. He is author of the annual Bracey Report on the Condition of Public Education (Phi Delta Kappan, October), and of Bail Me Out! Handling Difficult Data and Tough Questions About Public Schools (Corwin Press, April, 2000). ENDNOTES Fuller, Howard L., and George A. Mitchell, "The Impact of School Choice on Integration in Milwaukee Private Schools," published June 2000, page 1 Press Release accompanying Fuller and Mitchell, June 2000 Fuller and Mitchell, page 1 Ibid., page 3 Ibid., page 4 Ibid., Appendix 1 Ibid., page 3 Ibid., Appendix 2 Ibid., page 11 Posted 6/26/2000
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